Forum:2013 Pacific typhoon season
Future start Yep.--Isaac829 02:18, September 16, 2012 (UTC) Yep. A. Massive. Catty. 5. Typhoon. In. Typhoon. Land. I. Think. Will. Hit. Japan. In. August. 2013. Whilst. We. Are. Having. Humberto. And. Ingrid. Agreed. People. 00:10, November 11, 2012 (UTC) : JTWC Best Track for last year is out.Isaac829 20:54, April 26, 2013 (UTC) October 29W.KROSA JMA Tropical Depression Behind Francisco and Lekima, we have another new tropical depression. The JTWC has not commented yet, but the JMA currently has this depression at 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds)/1006 mbar (hPa). If this depression is turning out to sea, I know I am jumping the gun here, but I want another Category 5, possibly even stronger than Lekima, so we can get three straight Category 5s! If it is near land, let just a tropical depression come from this. AndrewTalk To Me 12:38, October 27, 2013 (UTC) :This is forecast to become Krosa. If you see the tropical weather map for the WPac from Wunderground, this one is just to the northwest of Guam in the Marina Islands. Both the GFS and the Euro see this one heading on a straightforward path into the Philipine Island of Luzon in 4 or 5 days, but only as a moderate strength tropical storm or minimal typhoon. Then, it'll move into the South China Sea and end up in Haninan Island or Vietnam. Behind this, the GFS sees a monster typhoon following this one roaring into the heart of the Philipines in Manila. That's around 280 hours out and lots of things could change, but it's something to keep your eyes on. WPac is far from finished. Ryan1000 00:45, October 28, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Storm Krosa Now named by the JMA, but the JTWC still has this as a depression. It's predicted to slam into the Philippines as a weak typhoon, and eventually affect southern China and Vietnam. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 00:11, October 30, 2013 (UTC) Is at typhoon strength base on the JWTC not sure with the JMA.Allanjeffs 00:29, October 31, 2013 (UTC) Severe Tropical Storm Krosa (Vinta) It's not a JMA-official typhoon yet, Allan, but it's getting close, with 60-kt (10-min) winds and a pressure of 980 mbar. The JMA doesn't predict much intensification before Krosa reaches northern Luzon, but they do take it to a 75-kt (10-min)/955 mbar typhoon to the southeast of Hainan. This could be the one to break the streak of major typhoons by JTWC standards, though. Still yet to hear from the JTWC on any further intensification since they upgraded Krosa to a typhoon. BTW, PAGASA named this storm Vinta some time ago; in fact, I think Krosa (Vinta) earned its PAGASA name before it was christened by the JMA. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 01:06, October 31, 2013 (UTC) :Oh, and Happy Halloween, everyone! --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 01:07, October 31, 2013 (UTC) ::Up to 80 kts (1-min) by the JTWC, but the JMA hasn't made the upgrade to typhoon status yet. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 03:47, October 31, 2013 (UTC) Typhoon Krosa (Vinta) ...they have now! 65 kt (10-min)/975 mbar per the JMA. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 07:34, October 31, 2013 (UTC) : Hit at 105 mph. Didn't expect it to become a cat 2, but it did. Furthermore, the GFS sees two more storms hitting them in the next week. Typhoon season is far from over. Ryan1000 15:49, October 31, 2013 (UTC) :: After hitting the Philippines today, Krosa should strengthen a little more as it heads towards southern China and Vietnam. Hopefully it won't be too bad. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Happy 23:50, October 31, 2013 (UTC) :::Well, Krosa's pressure remains at 975 mbar (hPa; 28.79 inHg), and its ten-minute sustained winds are at 70 knots (80 mph, 130 km/h) per the JMA. The JTWC has Krosa's one-minute sustained winds to be at 100 knots (115 mph, 185 km/h) gusting to 125 knots (145 mph). The JTWC predicts weakening from here on out, but the JMA forecasts Krosa to reach 75 knots (85 mph) (10-minute sustained winds)/965 mbar (hPa). So far, one fatality has reported so far from this typhoon. Also, for the record, Krosa's JMA upgrade to a typhoon marks the first time since 2003 seven straight JMA tropical storms became "official" typhoons. In addition, Krosa just became our sixth straight "major" typhoon per the JTWC. I am not sure when was the last time the WPAC had six straight JMA tropical storms became "major" typhoons (2004 had six straight majors per the JTWC, but Merbok intervened per the JMA). However, I will mention the 2013 PTS just accomplished a very rare feat. The only other two tropical cyclone seasons worldwide I can think of that had six straight tropical storms reach major hurricane intensity were the 1950 AHS (Able, Baker, Charlie, Dog, Easy, and Fox, with George almost continuing that streak) and the 1993 PHS (Dora, Eugene, Keoni, Fernanda, Greg, and Hilary). AndrewTalk To Me 21:17, November 1, 2013 (UTC) ::::Geezus, WPac has gone insane! I can't believe we have six straight tropical storms reaching major hurricane intensity, now that's a rare feat! Anyway, Vietnam might need to prepare for Krosa. —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 01:51, November 2, 2013 (UTC) :::::Krosa remains the same intensity since my last post per the JTWC, but the JMA has bumped the typhoon's winds up to 80 knots (90 mph, 150 km/h) (10-minute sustained) and lowered its pressure to 970 mbar (hPa; 28.64 inHg). Luckily, the JMA predict Krosa will only be a tropical storm at its Vietnam landfall and the JTWC also forecasts a borderline tropical storm landfall. AndrewTalk To Me 11:03, November 2, 2013 (UTC) :::::::Apparently it's now "Krosa sits in the south China Sea and moves southwest until it makes landfall as a TS." (sorry, getting bored, at least Krosa gives me something to look at lol). Ryan1000 13:13, November 3, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Storm Krosa (2nd time) Hanging on as a minimal typhoon per the JTWC, but down to a 45-kt (10-min)/992 mbar tropical storm per the JMA. The JMA and JTWC forecasts still take Krosa to Vietnam as a TS, but I'm starting to wonder if Krosa will pull a Karen and die before landfall. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 16:00, November 3, 2013 (UTC) : Yeah, I think Krosa will probably die before landfall, similar to that Karen failure. It might still bring lots of rain to Vietnam though. —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 19:35, November 3, 2013 (UTC) ::Krosa has crashed down to 45 knots (50 mph, 85 km/h) (1-minute sustained winds) per the JTWC with gusts of 55 knots (65 mph). Also, the JMA has risen its pressure to 996 mbar (hPa; 29.41 inHg) and lowered its winds to 40 knots (45 mph, 75 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds). Both the JMA and JTWC predict Krosa will be a weak tropical depression at its Vietnam landfall, but the storm could pull a Karen (2013) or Don (2011) to some extent. AndrewTalk To Me 21:57, November 3, 2013 (UTC) :::Down to a 25-kt (1-min) TD per the JTWC. Krosa's time is almost up, I'd say. I must say that I didn't expect Krosa to collapse so quickly; 12 hours ago, we were still talking about a typhoon by JTWC standards, albeit a marginal one. "Shorter of breath, and one day closer to death." -Pink Floyd, "Time" --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 02:59, November 4, 2013 (UTC) November Has begun, but aside from Krosa, WPac is quiet right now. However, there could be a few storms following up behind Krosa if the GFS forecast turns out to be correct. Ryan1000 00:24, November 1, 2013 (UTC) :The WPAC is going nuts. I will not be surprised if all those storms become typhoons. For November, I think the WPAC will produce 5''' tropical storms, '''5 severe tropical storms, 4''' typhoons, '''1 super typhoon, and an ACE of 51. AndrewTalk To Me 21:20, November 1, 2013 (UTC) ::My predictions: 3 tropical storms, 2 severe tropical storms, 2 typhoons, and 0 super typhoons. The WPac should quiet down a little from here on out. —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 01:53, November 2, 2013 (UTC) 30W.NONAME 98W.INVEST Behind Krosa, we have a new invest. It has a low chance of becoming tropical in the next 24 hours. AndrewTalk To Me 11:53, November 2, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Depression 30W And now this is 30W. This will probably become Tropical Storm Haiyan as it moves into the Philipines over the next day or two, causing some flooding rains. Hopefully it doesn't become the catastrophe Washi was in December 2011. Ryan1000 13:00, November 3, 2013 (UTC) : I'm not sure which one will become Haiyan first, 30W or 31W? The winner will get the name "Haiyan", while the loser gets the name "Podul". Anyway, I think this storm could bring lots of flooding to the Phillippines. —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 19:41, November 3, 2013 (UTC) : This will do more effects in Vietnam than the Phillippines imo.Allanjeffs 21:02, November 3, 2013 (UTC) ::Well, the Philippines should still accordingly plan for this system. As for this depression itself, the JMA has its intensity at 25 knots (30 mph, 45 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds)/1008 mbar (hPa; 29.77 inHg) and the JTWC has its intensity at 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) (1-minute sustained winds) gusting to 40 knots (45 mph). The JTWC predicts a break in our typhoon streak, taking the depression to 60 knots (70 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) with gusts of 75 knots (85 mph). AndrewTalk To Me 22:03, November 3, 2013 (UTC) 31W.NONAME 99W.INVEST Our unlucky 13th typhoon could form from this invest. The JTWC gives this system a low chance of becoming tropical in the next 24 hours, but there is a big chance another well-organized tropical cyclone could come from this. AndrewTalk To Me 11:52, November 2, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Depression 31W Yes Andrew, this one could be a scary storm for the Philipines in the future. The latest JTWC forecast on this one takes it screaming towards the islands as a 140 mph typhoon by Friday this week. I have the feeling Typhoon Podul could be very reminicent of Durian of 2006, hopefully everyone gets out before this one hits. Ryan1000 13:00, November 3, 2013 (UTC) This one is suppose to be a cat 4 or 5 when it hits the Philippines hopes it doesn`t reach that strength or it could be a disaster like Bopha.Allanjeffs 19:01, November 3, 2013 (UTC) : I think a better comparison to this storm would be Durian in 2006, which had the same general forecast path at this time in it's life. Durian wasn't as bad as Bopha, but 155 mph winds, hundreds of deaths, and billions of dollars in damage isn't anything to laugh at. I have a feeling this storm (Podul, assuming 30W gets named first, if not Haiyan), could be almost an exact repeat of Durian in track and intensity, though hopefully causing less death and destruction. Ryan1000 19:45, November 3, 2013 (UTC) :: This storm is looking scary in the long run. The Philippines could be attacked by future Podul (or maybe Haiyan?) by Friday as a huge typhoon, and we could even see a re-Bopha from this. —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 20:06, November 3, 2013 (UTC) :::Looking at the JTWC forecast track, this depression is poised to cause significant impact in the Philippines and likely might even rival Utor's effects. Both the JMA and JTWC have this depression's winds at 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) (1 and 10-minute sustained) and the pressure is estimated to be at 1004 mbar (hPa; 29.65 inHg). I do not know what this depression will do, but if we get another Bopha or Durian, it could get extremely nasty out there. AndrewTalk To Me 22:08, November 3, 2013 (UTC) Retirements at a glance There are enough storms. *All - 10% - Nothing seems to be worth retiring this year. (Except Labuyo, Usagi it still sucked) Isaac829 19:55, September 25, 2013 (UTC) I am going to wait on this section until Soulik dissipates. AndrewTalk To Me 12:50, July 9, 2013 (UTC) : Yeah, when Soulik hits China, I think we'll have a seroius retirement canidate. But nothing prior to Soulik stands much of a chance for retirement. Ryan1000 16:03, July 9, 2013 (UTC) Now that Soulik's gone, I will post my predictions: JMA: #Sonamu - 1% - Two deaths is simply not enough for retirement, and Sonamu barely left any damage at all. #Shanshan - 1% - Although four people died and damages amount to $255,000 (2013 USD), if 2008's Fengshen was not retired, Shanshan definitely will not. #Yagi - 0.1% - It tapped Japan, but I just do not see Yagi going because of the lack of damage and deaths. #Leepi - 0.5% - This storm affected a good number of regions, but there are no damage or death reports, so it is a no for Leepi. #Bebinca - 2% - Despite affecting many areas of China, they have seen so much worse than Bebinca, as the storm did not kill anyone and caused only $5.3 million (2013 USD) in damage. #Rumbia - 5% - Fifty-five deaths, along with $1.25 million (2013 USD) in damage, make Bebinca an unlikely retirement candidate.Rumbia only did $1.25 million in damage, the other $4.52 billion came from something else.--Isaac829 19:13, July 14, 2013 (UTC) #Soulik - 10% - This could have been an unwritten nightmare for Shanghai, but Soulik collapsed so fast it did not happen. Regardless, the damage total of $43 million (2013 USD) is not looking good. #Cimaron - 5% - Some significant flooding and impact occurred in China and damages total to $253 million (2013 USD), but it likely will not be enough for retirement, considering only one fatality was reported. #Jebi - 0.5% - No damages or deaths have been reported from the system, and it was not as bad as it could have been. #Mangkhut - 0.1% - It has caused two fatalities, but I doubt it will be bad at all for Vietnam. #Utor - 40% - Utor could have been so much worse than it really was. Looking at a super typhoon explode so close to the Philippines was just unreal. The Philippines have quite the road to recovery and southern China was hit pretty good as well. However, despite the ugly $21 million (2013 USD) in damage, the eight deaths lowers my percentage significantly. If Utor had caused Bopha or Washi-like fatality totals, we could be looking at a typhoon with an 80% chance of retirement. #Trami - 3% - Trami did cause 18 fatalities and property losses of $1.83 million (2013 USD). It also has caused serious flooding in China and the Philippines. Fortunately, most of those regions were in a drought, so there was some benefit from the storm. #Kong-rey - 1% - Despite the two deaths reported from Kong-rey, I doubt it will be remembered. #Yutu - 0% - Yutu was nothing more than a Western Pacific Gaston or Jose. #Toraji - 0.5% - Toraji was not significantly bad for Japan or Taiwan. #Man-yi - 0.5% - Only one fatality was reported from Man-yi, and that does not make it a retirement nominee at all. #Usagi - 40% - Hong Kong came so close to getting nailed here. Luckily, Usagi collapsed before it could do so. However, the 50 deaths and $1.15 billion (2013 USD) in damage will make it a major retiree candidate. #Pabuk - 0% - Pabuk tried...and failed. #Wutip - 20% - Wutip caused lots of hype in Vietnam. Sixty-five fatalities and $233 million (2013 USD) in damage do give a small shot of leaving. #Sepat - 0.01% - Sepat's impacts to Japan should not be enough at all to retire it. #Fitow - 4% - Fitow's $372 million (2013 USD) in damage and 11 fatalities make it along the lines of Soulik, which is good, considering the flooding in China. #Danas - 10% - Okinawa may have gotten unlucky here. 2007's Man-yi was their last brutal beating, and Danas was not as strong as Man-yi. Still, fifteen fatalities gives it a chance. #Nari - 8% - The Philippines, Vietnam, and Loas did get pounded a little. $71.4 million in damages (2013 USD) and 38 fatalities, along with some flooding, give it that small chance. #Wipha - 5% - The 13 fatalities in Japan are not looking good... #Francisco - 0.1% - Francisco did affect several landmasses and became a Category 5, but I do not think it will be retired. #Lekima - 0% - Lekima overtopped Usagi as the season's strongest storm, but it did not affect any landmasses, so no retirement is in store. #Krosa - TBA - Still Active PAGASA: #Auring - 0.1% - No. #Bising - 0% - No way. #Crising - 2% - Not really. #Dante - 0% - No way. #Emong - 0.05% - No. #Fabian - 0% - No way. #Gorio - 20% - Maybe, but I doubt it. #Huaning - 0% - No. #Isang - 0.01% - No. #Jolina - 0.05% - No. #Kiko - 0.05% - No. #Labuyo - 50% - Maybe, but I will not guarantee it. #Maring - 0.5% - No. #Nando - 0.01% - No. #Odette - 0.5% - Not really. #Paolo - 0.01% - No. #Quedan - 0% - No way. #Ramil - 0% - No way. #Santi - 3% - Not really. #Tino - 0% - No way. #Urduja - 0% - No way. #Vinta - TBA - Still Active AndrewTalk To Me 14:57, July 14, 2013 (UTC) Might as well make mine: JMA names: *Sonamu - <1% - Not happening. *Shanshan - 2% - Not a fishspinner, but this was no Bopha. *Yagi - ~0% - Hardly any damage in Japan. *Leepi - 0% - More widespread than Yagi, but most of the impacts were negligible. *Bebinca - 5% - Some damage to China, but they've seen much worse than this. *Rumbia - 30% - I would normally go higher for a storm that killed over 50 people, but those numbers aren't high enough in that area. *Soulik - >30% - 300 million in damage as of now, Soulik could've been much, much worse. *Cimaron - <10% - China has seen worse. *Jebi - 8% - Meh. *Mangkhut - 10% - Not too bad. *Utor - 65% - Caused lots of damage over parts of Luzon, China got off better though. *Trami - 15% - It contributed to an already severe flood problem in China, hopefully it doesn't get much worse. *Kong-Rey - 15% - Some flooding, but nothing significant. *Yutu - 0% - Do it again! I wasn't looking. *Toraji - 5% - Some flooding in Japan, but likely not retirement-worthy. *Man-Yi - 3% - Damage in Japan wasn't too severe. *Usagi - 15% - Some damage and deaths, but like Utor, Hong Kong escaped the worst of the storm's fury. *Pabuk - 0% - Didn't affect land. *Wutip - 25% - Haven't seen impacts yet, but it wasn't negligible, I can tell you that. *Sepat - 0% - Fish. *Fitow - 25% - Some damage and deaths, but China has seen worse. *Danas - 0% - Gave Japan and the Koreas a scare but they came out unscathed. *Nari - 20% - Some damage and deaths, but probably not retirement-worthy. *Wipha - 15% - Zipped right by Japan as a typhoon, but didn't do as much as it could've done. *Francisco - 0% - Looks like this wasn't even close to as bad as it could've been. *Lekima - 0% - Missed land, like Francisco. *Krosa - 10% - 689,000 in damage and 4 deaths isn't negligible, but probably not enough either. PAGASA names: *Auring - 1% - Not enough. *Bising - 0% - Seriously? *Crising - 4% - Nah. *Dante - 0% - Did I miss something? *Emong - 1% - Maybe...nah, not happening. *Fabian - 0% - What? *Gorio - 15% - Nothing compared to past storms they've seen. *Huaning - 0% - No damage to the Philipines. *Isang - 0% - Didn't touch the Philpines. *Jolina - 6% - Nothing severe to the islands. *Kiko - <5% - Not much to the Philipines. *Labuyo - 100% - Has been retired. *Maring - 2% - Mostly missed the islands. *Nando - ~0% - No real impacts to the islands. *Odette - <5% - Largely missed Luzon. *Paolo - 0% - Missed the islands. *Quendan - 0% - Well away from the Philipines. *Ramil - 0% - Again, missed the islands. *Santi - 25% - Killed 13 people, but that's not even a shadow of what they've seen before (Bopha anyone?) *Tino - 0% - Not even close. *Urduja - 0% - Not by a long shot. *Vinta - 5% - Not too severe for Luzon. Those are mine. Ryan1000 21:54, July 14, 2013 (UTC) Here's my predictions: JMA names *Sonamu - 1% - 2 deaths are not enough. *Shanshan - 1% - This affected the Philippines, but the damage and deaths are not enough for retirement. *Yagi - 0% - Failure. *Leepi - 0% - No way. *Bebinca - 5% - China has seen much, much worse. *Rumbia - 25% - There's a chance, but I doubt it. *Soulik - 35% - Caused lots of damage in Taiwan and China, but this could have been much worse. *Cimaron - 10% - I don't think so. *Jebi - 0.5% - Nope. *Mangkhut - 1% - Doubt it. *Utor - 55% - Caused lots of destruction in the Philippines and China. I think we have the first serious retirement candidate! *Trami - 10% - It did cause some damage and deaths, but I don't think it is going. *Kong-rey - 2% - Probably not. *Yutu - 0% - Nothing. *Toraji - 1% - Affected Japan, but it will not be retired. *Man-yi - 2% - Not much damage in Japan. *Usagi - 20% - Hong Kong almost got devastated here. Well, at least its center missed the area and it weakened, so it wasn't nearly as bad as I expected. But it still caused plenty of damage and deaths. *Pabuk - 0% - Didn't affect land. *Wutip - 25% - Caused some destruction in Vietnam, but I doubt retirement. *Sepat - 0% - Another fail. *Fitow - 15% - Caused some damage and deaths in China, but it will most likely not be retired. *Danas - 5% - Wasn't too bad. *Nari - 20% - Caused quite a bit of damage and deaths in the Philippines and Vietnam, but retirement? Probably not. *Wipha - 10% - This storm zipped right by Japan, and it caused some deaths and damage. But I think it will stay. *Francisco - 1% - Became a C5, but didn't significantly affect land. So, no retirement here. *Lekima - 0.1% - It became the strongest of 2013 and never affected land. That's the type of storm that I like to see! While Lekima certainly isn't going to be retired because it didn't affect land, the "0.1%" is for its awesomeness. *Krosa - ? - Still active. PAGASA names *Auring - 0.5% - Doubt it. *Bising - 0% - Epic fail. *Crising - 2% - Nah. *Dante - 0% - Hell no. *Emong - 0.1% - No. *Fabian - 0% - Turned the wrong way. *Gorio - 20% - The Philippines have seen MUCH worse. *Huaning - 0% - Nope. *Isang - 0.1% - Not happening. *Jolina - 5% - Caused some flooding in the Philippines, but it won't be retired. *Kiko - 2% - Didn't do much to the Philippines. *Labuyo - Retired. *Maring - 0.5% - It mostly missed the Philippines. *Nando - 0% - No Philippine impacts. *Odette - 0.5% - Not really. *Paolo - 0% - Missed the Philippines. *Quedan - 0% - See Paolo. *Ramil - 0% - Nope. *Santi - 10% - 13 deaths make it an unlikely retirement candidate, since the Philippines has seen much worse. *Tino - 0% - No. *Urduja - 0% - Well away from the Philippines. *Vinta - ? - Still active. [[User:Steven09876 |'''Steven09876]] ''T'' | ' 15:59, July 22, 2013 (UTC) Labuyo has been retired due to its damage total. AndrewTalk To Me 14:04, August 20, 2013 (UTC) So we know that if a storm makes more than1 billion in damage and kill more than 300 lives is going to be retire.Now we know which ones are going out of the list.Allanjeffs 15:20, August 20, 2013 (UTC) : Not surprised it was retired, but I'm not sure if Utor itself will be retired. Sometimes a storms PAGASA name is retired but the JMA name stays, like Frank (Fengshen) in 2008, or many of the tropical storms in 2011 (except for Washi, which was retired by both PAGASA and JMA). 'Ryan1000''' 15:36, August 23, 2013 (UTC)